International Monetary Fund sees less severe global contraction but trouble in emerging markets



This comes as a clear indication of the success of the structural and economic reform measures and the success of the government's plan in facing the challenges posed by the "Covid-19" pandemic. ASEAN-5 economies are seen to contract this year by 3.4 percent, before expanding 6.2 percent next year.

This prompted economic managers to revise their GDP estimate this year to a contraction of 5.5 percent, worse than their earlier projection of a 2 percent to 3.4-percent decline.

The worldwide agency said it now expects global GDP to fall by 4.4% this year, slightly better than its June forecast of a 4.9% contraction in 2020. "The negative impacts of COVID 19 are expected to be only partially offset by policy support", Yang said in an emailed statement when sought for comment.

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The upgraded outlook compared to the dire forecast in June reflects the fact the downturn in the second quarter "was bad but it was the less bad than we expected", Gopinath said in an interview with AFP.

Bosnia is included in the IMF's Emerging and Developing Europe region, in which real GDP is expected to fall 4.6% in 2020 and grow 3.9% next year. "This why we describe this as a long, uneven, and uncertain ascent", International Monetary Fund chief economist Gita Gopinath said Tuesday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

"This crisis is however far from over". However, the International Monetary Fund noted that India may grow at an impressive rate of 8.8 per cent in 2021 - surpassing China's projected rate of 8.2 per cent - thereby regaining position as the fastest growing emerging economy.

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The IMF said the virus was continuing to spread in large countries including India and Indonesia, and these economies are far more dependent on hard-hit sectors including tourism and commodities as well as on remittances and other sources of external finance.

"Recovery is not assured while the pandemic continues to spread", chief economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the report.

While the considerable global fiscal support of close to 12 trillion dollars and the extensive rate cuts, liquidity injections, and asset purchases by central banks helped saved lives and livelihoods and prevented a financial catastrophe, Gopinath noted that there is still much that needs to be done to ensure a sustained recovery.

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Economic managers expect the economy to recover and grow between 7 and 8 percent next year, with the expectation that the health crisis would dissipate by that time. Those meetings are expected to be dominated by discussions of how to provide more aid to the world's poorest countries in the form of medical aid and debt relief. The World Bank has estimated that the pandemic has thrown between 88 million and 114 million people into extreme poverty, which is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day.

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