Crude rises as Venezuela sanctions stoke crude supply risk concern

An oil platform in Guanabara Bay near Niteroi Rio de Janeiro state Brazi. The oil price market is a highly complex system. Dado Galdieri  Bloomberg

Crude rises as Venezuela sanctions stoke crude supply risk concern

The Brent variety increased by 0.30% to 79.46 United States dollars per barrel, and last week it crossed the threshold of 80 USD per barrel for the first time since November 2014.

"In my updated forecast, I calculated that Iran could decrease its production to 560,000 - 700,000 barrels per day at the end of 2018". And it follows a rise in prices and a decline in global inventories that is making tighter supply more significant.

"That could mitigate any impacts on Iranian exports", said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

Nigeria went into recession in the second quarter of 2016 as a result of drop in the price of crude oil at the global market. The block of major oil producing countries and its ally Russian Federation have cut their output since January 2017 to help reduce excessive global stockpiles.

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Having said that shale oil production in the USA has constraints in the form of lack of piping infrastructure and skilled labour. These countries have not been able to meet even their reduced production targets which were given by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries after the synchronised cuts by member nations.

With the level of inventory standing at a five-year low, we are looking at a bull case scenario for oil. The latter will materialize, since more than half of India's remittances are reported to be channelled through the Gulf countries, which are likely to witness better economic conditions with higher oil prices.

The International Energy Agency said that Venezuela oil production fell to 1.42 million b/d in April, down 50,000 b/d from March and down 560,000 b/d from a year earlier.

Oil output in Venezuela hit a long-term low of 1.505 million barrels per day in April, nearly 500,000 bpd below its OPEC output target. A glut of oil that held prices down for years is essentially gone. The "Oil Price Dynamics" report published by the Federal Reserve Bank of NY finds that less than two-fifth of the rise in oil prices since the beginning of 2018 was on account of supply-side factors.

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Oil prices surged higher on Tuesday, boosted by geopolitical concerns in Venezuela and the possibility that the United States could sanction the struggling country.

But most importantly, the oil markets are a complex adaptive system which is subject to multiple feedback mechanisms operating at different speeds and timescales. The higher crude oil imports bill could be offset by higher oil and non-oil exports (and of course, remittances).

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo demanded that Iran halt all uranium enrichment, stop its ballistic-missile program and give nuclear inspectors access to the entire country.

Noting that people, especially the middle-class, have to suffer due to price hike of oil, the minister said the government would try to work out a solution soon to deal with the situation.

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