Oil prices rise on forecasts for growing demand, OPEC concerns

Abhishek Kumar, senior energy analyst at Interfax Energy's Global Gas Analytics in London, said comments about "Venezuela's deteriorating oil-production profile, together with prospects for strong compliance with the OPEC-led output-cut agreement, (were) supportive of oil prices". Unless there is a change to the fundamentals, the effective global spare capacity cushion will fall to only 2.2% of demand by 2023, the lowest number since 2007.

The U.S. will dominate global oil markets for years to come, satisfying 80 percent of global demand growth to 2020, the International Energy Agency said.

The International Energy Agency believes USA oilfields will offset slow growth from the OPEC cartel.

"With limited additional demand for these volumes in the domestic refining system, future US production will need to clear into export markets", Wood Mackenzie's chief economist Ed Rawle said in a release Monday. Those purchases may create or sustain more than 400,000 full-time jobs in the USA during that period, the group estimated.

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Beyond that, however, the IEA warned that oil supply could become tight unless investment in new production rebounds from historic declines in recent years. The five-year prospects of the IEA show that the new production capacity of the group will shrink by about 62% compared to the previous report.

Oil exports from the USA are also poised to climb after Congress lifted a 40-year ban in late 2015. Prices are less than half that today.

The global demand for oil will increase by a total of 6.9 million barrels per day to 104.7 million barrels per day by 2023, and China will remain the "main driver of demand growth".

With oilsands production expected to keep growing, crude-by-rail shipments could peak as high as 590,000 barrels a day in 2019 if producers don't resort to crude storage in peak months, the IEA said. Output there is expected to double by 2023.

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Asked whether or not surging US production could hurt Canada's energy industry by eliminating the need for Canadian supply in its biggest market, IHS Markit's Calgary-based director, energy Kevin Birn said, "Not at this point".

All that USA production should keep prices at the pump from rising.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol made the remarks to reporters at the CERAWeek by IHS Markit that kicked off on Monday in Houston in the USA state of Texas.

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