IEA points to U.S. shale oil growth

IEA points to U.S. shale oil growth

IEA points to U.S. shale oil growth

At the same time, sudden turmoil in the broader financial system also bled over into the oil market. This was the biggest weekly decline since early 2016.

Brent for April settlement rose 14 cents to $62.73 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

At more than 10 million barrels per day, the United States is now rivaling Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, in terms of production. It took some time, but the inventory overhang is drawing down nicely.

Expectations of robust oil demand growth also prompted JPMorgan to raise its forecast, seeing Brent prices averaging $70 this year, with a peak of $78 a barrel at some point in the first half, when strong demand will continue to push prices up. It raised estimates for growth in non-OPEC supply in 2018 by about 100,000 barrels a day to 1.8 million a day - approximately equal to the amount of production OPEC and its partners promised to cut. In 2018, demand for Opec crude is forecast at 32.9 mbpd, slightly higher than the 2017 level, " the MOMR said.

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Europe, where almost 50 percent of vehicles are fuelled by diesel, is home to the global benchmark for diesel prices and the biggest storage hub for the road fuel as regional refineries are unable to meet local demand. There is a question mark over Venezuela and how many barrels will be lost as a result of the country's precarious domestic situation and potential USA sanctions.

USA production rose to 10.27 million bpd last week, the EIA said, which, if confirmed by monthly data, would represent an all-time US record. A recent average total production of 10 million barrels per day from the United States means it's producing more than Saudi Arabia and, by the end of the year, could be the world's largest oil producer, beating Russian Federation, if the pace continues.

"Another sobering thought is that it is not just a matter of production: trade patterns are changing". This observation raises the question of whether transmission channels drive the relationship between monetary policy and the crude oil market. The IEA described it as explosive. Meanwhile, OPEC compliance with crude output cuts rose to a record 136% in January, according to Bloomberg calculations. They have started to name and shame non-compliant nations, for instance declaring in January that Iraq and Kazakhstan did not comply.The deal is needed to bring some predictability to the oil market.

Oil prices recovered on Monday after dropping by as much as 9.5% last week due to higher oil production in the USÂ and rising oil reserves.

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The IEA's "Oil Market Report", issued every month, said new and revised data show a "modest" tightening early this year in the worldwide oil balance.

Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy, Industry & Mineral Resources, H.E. Khalid Al Falih, will be presented with the "International Oil Diplomacy Person of the Year 2017" Award at the Energy Institute's International Petroleum (IP) Week on February 22nd in London.

"Russia remains committed to agreements [with OPEC - TASS]". Inventories are closing in on the five-year average.

But we're now potentially moving into the next phase of this cycle, an all-too-familiar correction after prices have seemingly climbed too far.

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